Merry Hoopsmas

Posted by rick Thu, 20 Mar 2008 13:44:00 GMT

‘Tis the season again: March Madness 2008 is just about to kick off. In preparation for the High Holiday we’ve once again done way too much analysis work, gargled with way too many stats, to pick the bracket of 64 winners. For those playing along at home, here’s our notes on how we see the games unfolding:

Round I

Indiana vs. Arkansas:

Indiana should be able to beat Arkansas, during the normal season; the coaching question is hard to call; if Indiana gets to the line (which Arkansas has a tendency to give to opponents) they will make free throws. Almost too close to call. Given the latest history (IU 3-3 under new coach; Arkansas has decent recent wins). Final nod to Arkansas.

UNLV vs. Kent State:

UNLV will not turn over the ball, and you can’t steal from them. Both teams are strongly defensive. Kent State is a better shooting team and will get to the free throw line more often. Based on this, Kent State.

Mississippi State vs. Oregon:

Mississippi State is our highest-ranked #8, Oregon our 3rd-ranked #9. The game is played in Little Rock, which slightly favors Mississippi State. Statistically Mississippi State dominates the inside (rebounding and blocking #6, #2 in the country), Oregon is a great shooting team, but plays almost no defense. Oregon can shoot over Mississippi State’s inside game, and Oregon can put up points efficiently. Miss. St. is a horrible free-throw shooting team, though neither team lives at the line; Miss. St. tends not to foul. Quality of schedule gives it to Miss. St.

BYU vs. Texas A&M:

Both games are both great rebounding teams. Texas A&M on the road plays very poorly (vast difference in the ability to put up points). BYU is a much better shooting team and a great passing team. Both are decent % defensive teams, BYU much better @ 3pt% defense. We see BYU outshooting a low-scoring A&M road team.

Butler vs. South Alabama:

Butler will not turn the ball over. Butler shoots and makes lots of 3’s. South Alabama doesn’t appear to be playing teams which shoot the 3. Butler refuses to rebound, while South Alabama will rebound pretty well. Butler plays basically the slowest ball in the country (hence the rebound #s). South Alabama gets to the free throw line. Butler lost to Drake, played noone else in the 64. Butler is senior-loaded and has been to the tournament a lot. Game is being played in Birmingham. Looks like Butler (even given locale, though we might like to see it go the other way, and it’s a hard call).

Gonzaga vs. Davidson:

Game is being played in Raleigh, NC. Davidson #1 10, Gonzaga #4 7. Both teams have some close losses, some strange losses, a number of easy wins, etc. Davidson will not go to the free-throw line and will not turn over the line. Many of the team stats are similar. Both teams have been to the tournament a number of times. Based upon past Gonzaga history (other than the Munson coached year), Davidson looks marginally better.

Miami vs. St. Mary’s:

St. Mary’s has the best assist defense in the country :-) St. Mary’s defends the 3 very well, and has better points-per-posession and ppp defense. Miami plays a better schedule. Miami shoots great free throws, much better than St. Mary’s. Miami has better (Pomeroy) adjusted offense, St. Mary’s has better defense. Miami can’t seem to win a road game. This is a close call, but the road record is the deciding factor.

West Virginia vs. Arizona:

Arizona shoots free throws well, and Thuggins will put Arizona on the line. Both teams are fairly low-possessions, so a low-possession game. WV blocks a lot, but shoots poor free throws. WV plays an inside game. AZ will shoot the three and get fouled. WV will outrebound AZ. AZ’s defense is horrible. Arizona’s Pomeroy SoS is unbeatable, and they came out of a tough non-conference with only 2 losses (Memphis & Kansas). WV has performed better recently and in their conference. Slight advantage to WV due to locale. Push to WV.

St. Joseph’s vs. Oklahoma:

St. Joe’s is #2 11, Oklahoma #4 6. They play essentially an identical pace, a slow one. Oklahoma defends, St. Joe’s offends. Pomeroy gives Oklahoma a tougher schedule than St. Joe. Game is at a neutral location. Both teams played Gonzaga (St. Joe’s lost, Oklahoma won)—both early. St. Joe’s gets to the foul line and tends to make them. Oklahoma played a tougher schedule. Slight edge to Oklahoma.

USC vs. Kansas State:

Kansas St. has devastating rebound stats. Same points-per-possession stats. Kansas State plays a fast game, USC more down-tempo. USC has a stronger Pomeroy schedule (see also, PAC-10 inflation). Most stats, other than seed, favor Kansas State. Game is being played in Omaha, NE. USC will hit the 3 and Kansas State doesn’t defend that. Kansas State will take it inside. This looks more like and 8-9 instead of a 6-11. Kansas State.

Marquette vs. Kentucky:

Kentucky is playing without Patrick Patterson. Kentucky is prone to turn the ball over, and Marquette is prone to steal the ball. Kentucky has serious problems with point production. No real reason to pick UK.

Baylor vs. Purdue:

Purdue defends, plays slow; Baylor offensive, plays fast. Baylor wins on points-per-possession. Purdue causes lots of turnovers. Baylor gets to the line and shoots better. Purdue is very pesky. Baylor appears to have trouble with slower inside-bound teams (aka Purdue), and Baylor seems to struggle away from home.

Notre Dame vs. George Mason:

Notre Dame will get every rebound. ND our 2nd #5, GM our worst 12. GM played very few notable teams, won their tournament. ND wins on Pomeroy numbers, SoS, and most stats. ND.

Clemson vs. Villanova:

Clemson cannot shoot free throws wroth a damn. Clemson plays a fast ballgame. Clemson’s stats (other than free throws) dominate Villanova’s.

Michigan St. vs. Temple:

Michigan State will outrebound, has comparable offensive stats, and defends better than Temple. Mich. St.

Drake vs. Western Kentucky:

Western shoots well and defends well, playing a pretty fast game. Drake slows the hell out of the game, won’t turn it over. Western commits 20+ fouls a game and Drake is the #8 FT% team in the country. Neither team is playing a strong schedule. Definitely the closest of the 5-12 matchups. Drake’s FT w/ WKU’s fouling gives Drake the win.

Washington State vs. Winthrop:

Winthrop will not hit a free throw, Wash. St. does OK. Both shoot the 3 fairly well, Winthrop defends it well. Wash. St. plays incredibly slow ball. Wash. St. doesn’t rebound; Winthrop does ok on rebounding. Washington State will not turn the ball over. Winthrop has low adjusted Pomeroy offensive efficiencly, won’t play a fast game. Washington State has good off/def Pomeroy numbers, but is in the PAC-10. This will be a slow-ass ballgame. Winthrop’s offense seems anemic, and they rely on a streaky shooter. Washington State’s offense seems limited as well. Game will be close; unlikely to beat Notre Dame. Winthrop’s defense could slump Washington State, so push for Winthrop win.

Vanderbilt vs. Siena:

Siena wants to steal the ball, and refuses to turn it over. Points per possession is similar. Vanderbilt’s defensive PPP is worse than Siena’s. Siena doesn’t foul (question about strength of schedule). Siena doesn’t defend the 3 well, while Vanderbilt is a great 3-point team. This will be an up-tempo game. Both teams give up a lot of offensive rebounds. Siena will steal the ball. Vanderbilt’s adjusted Pomeroy stats are better than Siena’s. Vanderbilt’s SoS numbers look significantly better. Vanderbilt has trouble on the road. Could be a close game. Siena’s center doesn’t score much and they look to be smaller inside (Pomeroy height). Looks like Vanderbilt will take it inside if they have trouble from the permiter. Vanderbilt for the win.

Pitt vs. Oral Roberts:

Pitt is offensively stronger, Oral Roberts is comparably defensively strong. Both teams are comparable in a lot of statistical areas, playing a similar pace of game. Pitt has better SoS. Pitt is on a recent good run and seems to scrap it out in the tournament. Oral Roberts hasn’t got anything compelling to overcome Pitt’s rebounding skill, scrapping, etc.

Connecticutt vs. San Diego:

Statistically there’s really no contest here. UConn. :-(

Louisville vs. Boise State:

Location slightly favors Louisville (Birmingham). Boise St. plays an uptempo game with strong shooting. Louisville defends the shot well. Boise State passes well, though so does Louisville. Adjusting for opponents Louisville’s O/D stats look much better than Boise State’s. Louisville has more tournament experience. I think Pitino will bring Louisville through over a team in a down conference year.

Wisconsin vs. Cal. State Fullerton:

Wisconsin slows it down, plays strong defense, Fullerton plays more offensively. Only Duke seems to have gotten Wisconsin out of their game. Wisconsin gets opponents to foul them and then lives at the line. Fullerton will foul. Wisconsin’s adjusted stats strongly favor Wisconsin (including #1 in defense in the country). Wisconsin’s schedule is vastly stronger than Fullerton’s. It’ll still be a close-scoring game due to the pace, but Wisconsin should prevail.

Stanford vs. Cornell:

Stanford rebounds well, Cornell doesn’t rebound at all. Cornell shoots very very well (5, 6, 11 in country wise) .. 76.27 from the line, though they don’t tend to get to the line (presumably due to the Ivy League competition). Stanford play a bit better offense than Cornell does defense. Game is being played in Anaheim. :/ Cornell’s opposing offense strength sucks. Stanfords adjusted #s look vastly better (even given PAC-10 inflation). Cornell does have an inside presence (7-footer) and strong 3-point shooting, played strong against Duke and beat Siena. It will be a closer game than people probably expect. Cornell is going to play a faster pace than Stanford. Don’t see Cornell winning in Anaheim though.

Georgia vs. Xavier:

Georgia is on a run. :-) hahahah. Georgia’s Gaines and recent home wins shouldn’t be enough to overcome Xavier’s statistical dominance.

Tennessee vs. American:

American turns the ball over a lot esp. given their slow pace. UT will get you to turn the ball over. American shoots 4th 3pt % in the country, but UT defends @ 20th against the 3. UT will outrebound American. Birmingham location favors UT. UT.

Georgetown vs. UMBC:

UMBC is very efficient at scoring, but plays little defense. UMBC never turns over the ball. UMBC is in a bad conference. Georgetown plays good defense. Another slow-ass game. UMBC never turns over the ball, though Georgetown does. Don’t really see how UMBC can be bad on defense in a bad conference and defeat Georgetown.

Texas vs. Austin Peay:

Texas has the #1 TO and TO rate stats in the country. Austin Peay steals a lot but Texas never lets that happen. Austin Peay doesn’t rebound. Texas doesn’t pass the ball. Texas is strong offensively against strong defenses, Austin Peay has horrible SoS numbers. Don’t see them stopping Texas.

Duke vs. Belmont:

Both teams run up and down the floor. Belmont’s defensive stats are too weak to keep up with Duke.

Round II

Notre Dame vs. Winthrop:

Notre Dame is better offensively, while Winthrop is stronger defensively. Notre Dame is a great 3pt% team (#3 in the country) and passes great. Winthrop’s defense is possibly strong enough to pose a challenge to Notre Dame’s offense. Notre Dame is a great rebounding team, Winthrop is decent, especially considering how slow of a game they place. The game will probably be a good one. Doesn’t appear as if Winthrop has the offensive guns to make it past ND.

Clemson vs. Vanderbilt:

A lot of stats are very similar. Clemson will clean up on the boards, but Vanderbilt may kill them on the free-throw line. Clemson defends the three very well, while Vanderbilt relies a lot on the three. Could be matched up pretty well, guards vs. inside game. Clemson will steal the ball. Vanderbilt has trouble on the road. It’s a close close call, but Vanderbilt probably loses on the road.

Pitt vs. Michigan State:

Tiny mile-high edge to Pitt playing in Denver. Mich. St. shoots better and defends shots better than Pitt. Both have great Orp stats. The game will be on the slower side. Nietzel is an unknown quantity, though usually shows up in the tourney. Mich. St. shoots much better free throws. Mich St.’s Pomerowy adjusted numbers are better than Pitt’s. Pitt will probably outrebound Mich. St. Mich. St. seems to be more likely to prevail.

Drake vs. UConn:

Drake beats UConn in both points-per-position (offense/defense) categories. Drake plays slow, doesn’t turn it over. Drake has good Pomeroy adjusted numbers, wrapping around UConn’s. Drake shoots great free throws but doesn’t necessarily get to the line, and UConn isn’t inclined to send anyone to the FT line. UConn gets lots of fouls, but Drake doesn’t tend to commit fouls. Drake is playing outside ball, UConn playing inside ball, blocking every thing that comes into the paint. We see Drake winning on the outside.

Oklahoma vs. Louisville:

Both teams are bad at the free throw line; UL puts other teams there, but it might not make much difference in this game. UL is slightly better defensively. Louisville shoots better, slightly. UL’s Pomeroy adjusted numbers are a little better, while Oklahoma’s SoS is a little better. OK has Griffin and Longar Longar in the middle. UL has Padgett distributing the ball. UL has been pressing lately. It may well be a close game, but we give Louisville the edge.

Kansas St. vs Wisconsin:

This will be Wisconsin’s slow ball against KS’s fast ball. Can Kansas State get to the inside against Wisconsin. Points-per-possession are dead equal, but Wisconsin’s Ppp defense is spectacular. KS rebounds incredibly well, Wisconsin well. Omaha slightly favors Kansas State. Again a question of whether Bo Ryan ball can overcome a skilled fast-paced opponent. No matter how Allen picks this it will be wrong, because Wisconsin is involved. Wisc. hasn’t played a fast-paced game since January. We give the edge to Kansas State.

Marquette vs. Stanford:

Both teams get offensive rebounds, but Marquette allows the other team to get them, significantly. Marquette shuts down the 3, but Stanford doesn’t really shoot it. Marquette will steal the ball, but Stanford doesn’t allow too many steals. Ppp (both offense and defense) are pretty much identical. Pomeroy adjusted numbers are virtually identical. SoS is pretty much the same too. Only one common foe (Sacramento State) that they both beat about the same. Offensive stats are pretty identical. Steals vs. blocks, w/ t-o’s end up averaging out to be about the same. This is a very close statistical matchup. Stanford plays slower, Marquette faster. Marquette beat Wisconsin (@ Wisconsin), which is stylistically similar to Wisconsin (close game, made a few more shots, a couple more free throws). The game is being played in Anaheim, which favors Stanford. Marquette is 7-3 in last 10, Stanford is 6-4. Marquette’s wins are maybe slightly better more recently. This game is pretty much a dead heat. Given that, we pick Stanford for local court advantage.

Purdue vs. Xavier:

Pomeroy adjusted stats favor Xavier offensively, fairly close defensively. Purdue had a rough pre-season. Xavier will outrebound. Purdue is forcing lots of turnovers, and Xavier will turn the ball over. Purdue is going to send Xavier to the line where they are very good. Xavier has good shooting %s. Will Purdue’s forcing turnovers, stealing and blocking overcome their tendency to foul and put Xavier on the line (+ Xavier’s good general shooting)? This is a hard-ass game to pick. The consideration of fouls called is reduced, generally, in the tournament, by fewer calls. We call this an OT game. Seth Davis picks Xavier to go far. We choose Purdue.

Butler vs. Tennessee:

Butler never turns over the ball, plays a slow pace, doesn’t rebound well, defends the 3 well. Butler shoots the 3 better, gets to the free-throw line more. UT relies on turning over the other team, running the ball and hitting the 3, as well as bringing some inside (if Chism, etc., aren’t in foul trouble). Pomeroy numbers for TN are somewhat better, and TN played a hard schedule. Butler is a vastly better free-throw shooting team. TN commits a lot of fouls, though fewer are probably called in the tourney. TN passes the ball better than Butler, somewhat. Not clear that Butler has played anyone who wants to score a lot of points. Tennessee seems to sometimes be able to win against a slower opponent, but not clear they’ve played a team like Butler. Pick Butler.

Davidson vs. Georgetown:

Georgetown passes very well (esp. for a slow possession team), Davidson also passes pretty well, but not as well. Georgetown scores in the paint very well. Hibbert is overrated. Ppp Davidson is right with Georgetown. The Pomeroy adjusted efficiencies favor Georgetown somewhat. Davidson played Duke & UNC tough @ neutral sites, played a tough schedule but didn’t put in a lot of wins; beat Winthrop decisively late in the season. Georgetown plays a tougher schedule, seems to occasionally get a ref on their side ;-) Georgetown shoots poorly from free throw, Davidson better; but Davidson doesn’t send people too often, and Georgetown even less. Raleigh location somewhat favors Davidson. Davidson could do it… it’s a somewhat bold pick.

Saint Mary’s vs. Texas:

Texas beat them soundly @ home earlier in the year. In that game apparently St. Mary’s tried to take it inside and got stomped and were forced to go outside where they didn’t convert. Rick Barnes is a shithead coach, but, still, is he going to lose this one? Texas.

Duke vs. West Virginia:

Duke wants steals & 3’s. WV won’t turn it over but doesn’t defend the 3 well. Duke is very fast-paced, while WV is significantly slower. Duke gets a lot of rebounds (they shoot well, but play a fast tempo). WV doesn’t shoot well. Duke probably cannot put Demarcus Nelson (6’4”) on Joe Alexander (6’8”). Neither team is shooting great free throws. Duke has better Ppp numbers (including adjusted Pomery numbers). Not clear what WV can do to overcome Duke here.

UNC vs. Arkansas:

Arkansas defends a bit better than UNC, but: UNC has Orp rank #1, offensively great stats. Hill & Townes aren’t capable of stopping Hansbrough inside. UNC.

Kansas vs. Kent State:

Kansas is the #1 Ppp offense, adjusted Pomeroy offense, #2 national assists, #21 Orp @ a #119 rank possession pace. Neither team is a stellar free throw % team. Kent plays very slow ball. Kansas puts up a lot of points. Kent’s strategy should be: foul early, foul often. Playing in Omaha, an adjusted 30 minute drive from Lawrence. Kansas.

Memphis vs. Mississippi State:

Rick Stansbury—moron; Dorsey, head case. Miss. St. will turn the ball over, while Memphis will not. Some major shot blocking (a “block party”, in fact). If Dorsey gets in trouble, Memphis is in trouble; and Dorsey is often in foul trouble. Memphis didn’t play much lately (C-USA), other than UT, which was a complete collapse of discipline, and they lost @ home. Memphis has only had one loss; only played UConn, OK, Gtown, w/ big men. Big men vs. Big men. Both teams shoot poorly from the line, but neither really fouls a lot. Miss. St. turns the ball over a lot, while Memphis looks to steal it. Question: if Memphis gets challenged for the first time in a long while, how do they respond to it? Based on the turnovers, probably see Memphis coming out of this.

UCLA vs. BYU:

Have identical points rankings, though different tempos (BYU much faster). UCLA doesn’t shoot the 3, while BYU will do inside or outside. UCLA’s Mbah Moute is maybe injured (maybe just nonsense). BYU rebounds defensively pretty well, but doesn’t do much offensive rebounding at all. They’re playing in Anaheim. UCLA is vastly better at the line than BYU. UCLA dominates the adjusted Pomeroy stats (including PAC-10 inflation). Can’t see BYU making this happen.

Round III

Louisville vs. Butler:

Butler plays slow ball, Louisville significantly faster. Butler will not going to turn it over, nor rebound the ball. Louisville shoots 65.5% free throws, Butler 73%. Louisville defends the three very well, while Butler takes a shit-ton of threes. The question seems to be can Louisville defend the 3 well enough while not getting stuck on the line bricking free throws. We don’t see Butler pulling it off, as we think Louisville will shut down the 3.

Davidson vs. Kansas State:

Kansas State outrebounds, but will turn over the ball a lot more often. Davidson never goes to the free throw line, though they shoot there decently. Davidson shoots better, and Kansas State doesn’t seem to be defending all that well. Kansas State fouls a lot. Questions about Beazley’s health. Picked Davidson.

Stanford vs. Texas:

Playing in Houston. Texas never turns the ball over. TX plays poorly against the Big-10 (Rick Barnes in effect). Common foes—TX beat UCLA @ UCLA (Stanford lost to them 3 times). By transitivity, Big-10 > PAC-10 (see Ballman for a proof that exceeds the margin space). Stanford outrebounds Texas, gets to the line a lot better, both shoot about 69% from the line. TX shoots the 3 better, though Stanford doesn’t really shoot the 3. Can Stanford stop Augustin/Abram? Q: Does Rick Barnes foot-shooting outweigh playing in Houston? Can’t see TX doing this, if they couldn’t do it last year with Durant. Stanford.

Purdue vs. Duke:

Duke is fast-tempo; Purdue down-tempo. Duke shoots 3’s well, Purdue doesn’t really defend it well. Purdue shoots slightly better free throws, defends slightly better. Purdue is slightly better defensive Ppp, but much worse offensively. Otherwise, Duke beats them in pretty much every statistical category. Duke doesn’t have a big guy, but neither does Purdue.

UNC vs. Notre Dame:

Once again, UNC doesn’t leave the greater Tarheel Metro Area (Charlotte). Harangody vs. Hansbrough. UNC plays a fast pace, somewhat faster than ND. They both have great offense #s. UNC shoots inside better, ND shoots the 3 better. Both shoot free throws well, rebound well. TO’s are a push, but UNC gets more steals. UNC plays against better defenses than ND, opposing offenses are basically identical. If any team in this quadrant is going to beat UNC, it’s ND. Probably one hell of a ballgame, but UNC probably wins it.

Kansas vs. Clemson:

Clemson bricks free throws. Kansas rebounds great and has an incredible offense. The few games KU lost one was a rivalry, one was OK St. slowing the game down, and the other was really won at the foul line. Don’t see Clemson doing it.

Memphis vs. Michigan State:

Michigan State passes the ball very well. Izz in the houzze. According to Ballman, Izzo hasn’t had a recruiting class that hasn’t been to the Final Four… this would be the first (update: this stat is a year off, they have one more year). Michigan State is rebounding much better than Memphis. Memphis’ Ppp’s are better. Memphis is almost the worst free throw shooting team in the country, Michigan State is much better. If Memphis’s Dorsey is committing fouls, Memphis will suffer for it. Memphis is defensively stronger. RIMBoy has been feeling the Memphis. Dead heat. We call it for Memphis still.

Drake vs. UCLA:

Phoenix anti-UCLA sentiment in effect. Both shoot free throws well. Drake doesn’t offensively rebound as well. UCLA & Drake are both playing pretty slow pace. UCLA is much more balanced than the UConn team we picked Drake beating. UCLA.

Round IV

Memphis vs. Stanford:

Questions as to the tree’s probation status and sobriety. The Lopezes vs. the Dorsey. Q: does the free throw shooting finally catch up with Memphis? Memphis defends the three very well. See Lopezes getting over on Dorsey, making it up on the line and winning.

Davidson vs. Kansas:

Can’t see Davidson going any further.

Duke vs. UCLA:

Playing in Phoenix. Duke’s tempo is a lot faster. Duke will shoot the three, and UCLA probably won’t defend it. Neither team will turn over much. Ppp numbers (Pomeroy adjusted) are both in the upper echelon; SoS comparable; so dead heat on Pomeroy once PAC-10 inflation taken into account. See Duke coming out of there.

UNC vs. Louisville:

Can Padgett + Caracter take out Lawson & Hansborough in Charlotte? What would UL have to do? UL can’t shoot free throws either. UNC comes out of this one.

Round V

UNC vs. Kansas:

Roy Williams vs. the ghost of Roy Williams, in San Antonio… This will be an awesome ballgame. Kansas has better stats than UNC, generally, though they are both dominant teams. Pomeroy generally favors Kansas. Both teams shoot > 70% from the line (UNC has the advantage there). UNC’s first away game since, what, February. Kansas plays defense, how novel. Kansas.

Duke vs. Stanford:

Both play reasonable defense, Duke has slightly better offense. Duke has no inside game, against Stanford’s twins. Stanford owns offensive rebounding. Turnover rate is comparable. Both are kind of crappy FT shooters. Coach K is too good of a coach. Duke shoots the 3 and steals the ball.

Championship

Kansas vs. Duke:

Duke fouls more; they both shoot about 70% free throws. Kansas rebounds better; they shoot the 3 about the same, Duke defends the 3 a bit better. Bill Self vs. Roy Williams. There’s a first time for everything.

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separated at birth?

Posted by rick Thu, 12 Apr 2007 00:36:00 GMT

Comic dude Jimmy Kimmel	and	New University of Kentucky Basketball Coach Billy Gillispie

I’m just sayin’...

Tags at, birth, gillispie, hoops, jimmy, kimmel, separated, uk | no comments

hoops day 3 wrapup

Posted by rick Sun, 18 Mar 2007 16:00:00 GMT

Yep, here comes the bracket meltdown… One of our two teams picked to go to the finals exited on a coaching meltdown. Quick question: You’re the coach and your team is 2 points down with 41 seconds on the game clock and a full shot clock and the other team has the ball; do you (a) let them dribble for 30 seconds and then run a play, or (b) do you foul them immediately? If you picked (a) you’re in the august company of NCAA Championship winner Gary Williams, coach of the Maryland Terrapins. You would also probably be riding the bus back home just like Gary and his team. Oh well :-)

We had also picked Louisville to win in Rupp Arena, but that slipped away in the final seconds of a great contest.

We picked Washington State to beat Vanderbilt, but were happily surprised to see Derrick Byars step up and bring the Commodores through an overtime to the win (Conquer and Prevail indeed).

Finally, though we picked UNC to win at home (er, at Winston-Salem, which is basically the same), I would like to lodge a vocal protest about their game with Michigan State. The media coverage was so biased that we finally just shut off the audio to escape the Tyler Hansbrough circle-jerk, but the worst of is was that the officiating essentially gave the game to UNC: Hansbrough travelled or fouled nearly every time he touched the ball but was almost never called on it, while Michigan State was relentlessly called by the referees for anything that might remotely be an infraction. Such comes from not wearing the white jerseys I suppose. ...OK, enough grousing from me.

For those following along at home, here’s the latest snapshot in our slow decline down the ESPN tourney challenge bell curve:

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hoops day 2 wrapup

Posted by rick Sat, 17 Mar 2007 14:42:00 GMT

Well, as promised, the 2nd day didn’t go as well as the first :-) We didn’t do so poorly though. One thing that is striking is that this tournament has gone almost completely by the numbers (fwiw, a 9-seed beating an 8-seed is actually historically more frequent than the numerical seed matchup). Where did we make mistakes?

• We presumed that a 12-seed would beat a 5-seed as has happened nearly every year in the past decade, and for some reason decided that Arkansas was the strongest 12 playing USC (PAC-10, come on) the weakest 5. I had forgotten—don’t bet on Arkansas. They probably belonged in the NIT this year, frankly.

• Creighton vs. Nevada (and we took Creight to the Elite 8… ouch). We struggled over this pick but the deciding factor for us was that Shiloh was going to be out for the game, meaning Creighton could handle Nevada on the inside and then Nate Funk would be the edge. Well, we had faulty information. Turns out Shiloh was playing. Still, an OT game is basically a coin toss, so not so bad. I’d call this The Right Pick with the info we had.

• Texas vs. New Mexico State. This was our boldest pick, but it was based on 3 things: (1) New Mexico State ranks at the top of the nation in getting to the free-throw line, (2) Texas Coach Rick Barnes is a horrible coach and will lose just about any close game, and (3) Kevin Durant is the backbone of Texas’ team, and there’s not much to rely on if he struggles. We knew it would be a scrap, but believed that there’s no way to stop NM St. from getting to the line, which would keep the game close, which would put it in “Rick Barnes is playing for the opponent” territory, so NM St. for the win. The only thing which would stop that is a Carmelo Anthony-style 35-40-pt. assault by Durant. We believed NM St. could contain him enough to let the line do the rest. I’ll let the box score speak. The best team in the country at getting to the free-throw line had 12 free-throw attempts, while Texas had 26 (Durant alone had 16). The game was indeed won at the line, but (and here’s where I’ll temper my real sentiments for public consumption) the officials gave Texas the game by refusing to call any but the most blatant fouls on Texas while calling every possible contact on New Mexico State. I’ll let you draw your conclusions, but this is the game this year (I’m trying to recall the fiasco from last year that made me feel the same) that I walked away saying “this *&%$ is rigged.”

UPDATE: Actually, I forgot about the other mistake we made. We were working under the assumption in the Kentucky vs. Villanova game that Nardi was out with an injury. That had been the deciding factor for us in giving the game to Kentucky. Turns out Nardi was playing (misinformation to confuse the opposing coaches? who knows). I’m a huge Kentucky fan, but we might have given the game to Villanova had Nardi been scheduled to play, which would’ve been a mistake, as Kentucky pulled the win (which makes me very happy :-)

Despite all that Texas business, it was a good day of games, even though there weren’t enough upsets for my liking, Today should be even better given some of the great matchups. For your continued distraction, here’s the bracket after yesterday’s set of games:

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day 1 hoops wrapup

Posted by rick Fri, 16 Mar 2007 04:33:00 GMT

In our notes I hadn’t written down the final pick we made in one game—while the notes still said Gonzaga we wrote down (and entered in the ESPN bracket picking contest) that the winner of that game would be Indiana. So, we’re at 15-1 for the first 16 games, including correctly picking VCU to upset Duke in the first round. The only mistake we made today: picking Bobby Knight to coach his Texas Tech Red Raiders to a first-round win. Oh well. We were pretty worried this morning that we hadn’t picked a lot of upsets, even though we spent quite a bit of time looking at the matchups. Turned out that today there were very few upsets, so that’s just the way it went. I suppose that means the seeding committee did a good job.

Anyway, the VCU upset over Duke was a great game. I’m glad to say that Vanderbilt (my alma mater and the team Sean and I had season tickets to this year—a great year to have Vanderbilt season tickets) put on one of the most impressive clinics of the day, thoroughly schooling George Washington, even giving David Rodriguez (known for being the walk-on who led his frat intramural team to the intramural hoops championship) a point in the NCAA tournament (though he did double his turnovers on the year to 2). Congrats to the Commodores.

Since this may be the high point of our hoops-picking success this year, I’ll post a screenshot of our bracket for your distraction. Enjoy (“Ballman” is my friend Allen Ballman with whom I do the annual stats-combing and game picking):

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basketball picks

Posted by rick Thu, 15 Mar 2007 15:13:00 GMT

As you may or may not know, I get together with friends every year and watch the first 4 rounds of the ncaa division I men’s basketball tournament. We collect an absurd amount of stats and then go through our picks for every game. Here’s the notes we drew up as we considered each game. Enjoy :-)

• Arizona vs. Purdue: arizona will get to the line (#1/#2 in various foul-line stats); PAC-10 doesn’t play defense, especially on 3-pt game, which show’s in Arizona’s stats; Purdue is more capable of playing that defense; Question: will PAC-10-style ball prevail in a tournament setting with a team willing to play defense? Purdue has 3 players that average 2.5+ fouls per game: Watt Gordon (7.44 pts/game), Carl Landry (18.88 pts/game), Keaton Grant (4.53 pts/game). Get Landry in foul trouble early ? Purdue is about 8 deep. Purdue has more flexibility in strategy, will probably rotate through guys,

• butler vs. old dominion: butler will not give up the ball; butler will hit the 3s, but odu isn’t likely to defend them as well as is needed; looking at opponent ft% it looks like butler is playing a higher quality opponent; we don’t see odu overcoming butler

• maryland vs. davidson: common foes (Duke), which Maryland beat twice, but davidson drilled; they both have good stats, though and it might be a close game; maryland blocks and defends the 3; davidson has no strong opponents

• notre dame v. winthrop: winthrop has ironically played a stronger schedule, few losses, only seem to lose when they can’t get to the free-throw line at all; we give this one to winthrop

• oregon v. miami (oh): oregon played a vastly more difficult schedule, and miami lost lots of games

• UNLV v. ga tech: for ga tech, if they play a shoddy opponent they will usually beat them with fgs, otherwise they live or die @ the line; ga tech has worse recent record and worse record against tourney teams; seeing ga tech play, I was not impressed

• wisc v. corpus christi: game is a home game (in Chicago) for Wisconsin; wisconsin has played a stronger schedule; TAMCC has great numbers offensively, and wisconsin has great defensive numbers; it will be a matter of who can impose their will; this will be a much closer game than people expect.

• kentucky v. villanova: villanova may not have access to Nardi; villanova wants to get to the free-throw line; they have two main free-throw shooters, nardi and one other; nardi appears to be not in shape for the game, so we give kentucky the edge

• va. tech v. illinois: most stats point to VAT, the only positive factor for ILL is the location (Columbus); Ill just lost 2 players, however, which seals the deal for us.

• so. ill vs. holy cross: numbers are very similar, both teams have strong defenses, both teams will hold the ball, slow the game down. final score prediction: 13-12. Location slightly favors So. Ill. So Ill. has had some decent wins and has a bigger tourney record; we believe they might pull it off, but it’ll be close.

• duke v. vcu: vcu’s numbers look a lot better than duke’s; duke is in a slump (and has had recent slumps), has lost to some bad teams; duke has K, but might not be enough. We predict a close game but a Duke loss in 1.

• pitt v. wright st.: pitt has lost some games at the line and on cold shooting nights, otherwise they seem to win; numbers are way better than wright state; game is in buffalo as well; don’t see pitt losing this one

• indiana v. gonzaga: game is in sacramento; indiana is 5-5 in last 10 (including losses to michigan and illinois); while gonzaga’s numbers in the past are inflated due to competition, it would appear they could probably win this one

• ucla v. weber st.: nothing in numbers, schedule, or location favors weber

• marquette v. mich. st: this is a very tough game to call; ultimately we decided for michigan state on the basis of their defense versus marquette’s poorer shooting; mich. st. is a young team though, and not very deep

• USC v. Arkansas: looking at numbers, in some ways neither is a clear winner, but looking over schedules, looks like Arkansas can do this

• texas vs new mex. st.: we went to sleep on this one; kevin durant, if he is allowed to run the game, could win it for Texas; otherwise NM State could win this one; in a close game Rick Barnes will screw it up. NMST.

• vanderbilt v. george washington: can VU play away from home; GW didn’t play many good teams, but their defence numbers look good; pick vanderbilt based on schedule

• wash. st. v. oral roberts: stats are similar, but oral roberts doesn’t play much of anyone, give to wash st.

• boston college v. texas tech: who sucks worse? do you go against bob knight? TT doesn’t shoot as many 3s but they shoot them well, they lose games by not shooting well FG, but BC has poor defense; bob knight FTW

• belmont v. georgetown: not much of a contest on any axis; gt

• BYU v. xavier: xavier’s schedule is stronger; stats are competitive; xavier is playing 85 miles from home, fyi

• TN v. long beach state: LBC doesn’t play anyone; they put a lot of points up but neither team plays defense; UT wins

• Virginia v. Albany: neither team is particularly impressive; virginia’s schedule is a bit better; give it to virginia

• Louisville v. Stanford: numbers are similar; stanford plays in the pac-10; stanford 4-6 of last 10 only beat Tex Tech otherwise, lost to air force; lousiville stronger later, may have caracter working out; louisville; also, playing in lexington, ky!

• texas A&M v. penn: no contest: texas A&M

• nevada v. creighton: nevada is missing one dude, but has 3 stars; nevada plays a weaker schedule; creighton’s conference is stronger than is given credit for by the committee evidently; this is a very close game; as the RIMBoy said “he slipped on a WAC logo.”; creighton

• memphis v. north texas: memphis sucks, but north texas sucks worse.

• memphis v. creighton: creighton is a better team.

• florida v. purdue: yep.

• unc v. mich. st.: yeah, um, mich. st. doesn’t have but 1 guy worth thinking about, so UNC ftw.

• butler vs. maryland: this is a contest of tempo (butler, down; maryland, up)—can maryland get the game fast enough to beat Butler?

• winthrop vs. oregon: in Spokane(!), but winthrop defends the 3 well and oregon lives/dies by it; plus this is a PAC-10 team

• unlv vs. wisconsin: wisconsin is missing butch; wisconsin’s slow-down pace may catch up with them finally; recent Wisc. play has been a struggle; Lon is back. UNLV

• Kentucky v. Kansas: kansas is better in nearly every statistical category (except related to free-throws); kansas is 10-0 in last 10 but hasn’t played anyone (‘cept TX, and came back from 25 down in both cases); kentucky hasn’t beaten a ranked team all year; kentucky has not been playing well as of late—kansas wins

• va tech v. so. ill: both teams playing well; they have played in the past and So Ill won; no location benefit; both senior-laden; so ill shoots better free-throws; so… so ill.

• VCU v. Pitt: pittsburgh is closer to buffalo; VCU shoots better free throws; can Pitt defend against them? VCU shoots better, but hasn’t played as tough a schedule as Pitt; Pitt probably prevails

• Indiana v. UCLA: indiana hasn’t won much on the road; indiana shoots better free throws and 3s; but road losses may overcome them; we take UCLA

• arkansas v. new mexico st.: this is pretty much a toss-up; arkansas has played a tougher schedule, with some big losses; we end up taking NM State.

• vandy v. wash. st.: wash st has a better defense; vanderbilt has trouble on the road; wash st.

• texas tech v. georgetown: georgetown

• ohio st. vs. xavier: both down the road from lexington; can xavier stop oden? doubtful; we take ohio st.

• tenn v. virginia: question: will lofton show up; tn’s free throws will kill them; virginia FTW

• louisville v. texas A&M: we don’t know how A&M wins still; Louisville is playing in Lexingon, even though A&M has great numbers; Louisville still playing well late; A&M can’t come into Lexington and win; Louisville

• louisville v. creighton: both teams playing well late; both have good wins; louisville factor later in the tourney; no longer in lex.; creighton FTW

• oh st. v. virginia: don’t see va. stopping oden

• oh st. v. creighton: ohio st.

• wash st. v. georgetown: playing in NJ (a few timezones from wash st); georgetown better numbers; georgetown

• unc v. new mexico st: unc

• unc v. georgetown: numbers are similar; other minor considerations: georgetown

• pitt v. ucla: pitt—even in San Jose

• so ill v. kansas: kansas.

• kansas v. pitt: big east > big 12—> pitt

• winthrop v. unlv: at this point you need to hit free throws; unlv.

• florida v. maryland: this will be a scrap; give it to maryland

• maryland v. unlv: maryland

• maryland v. pitt: maryland

• georgetown v. ohio st.: georgetown

• maryland v. georgetown: georgetown (this would be a coin-flip just about)

Tags hoops | 2 comments

hoops!

Posted by rick Wed, 15 Feb 2006 22:56:00 GMT

Just got a call and it looks like I’ve got a free ticket to tonight’s Vandy vs. Florida game. Awesome!

UPDATE: we went, and it was a great ballgame. There’s a recap post on the hoopsmap site.

Tags hoops, input | no comments