Merry Hoopsmas
Posted by rick Thu, 20 Mar 2008 13:44:00 GMT
‘Tis the season again: March Madness 2008 is just about to kick off. In preparation for the High Holiday we’ve once again done way too much analysis work, gargled with way too many stats, to pick the bracket of 64 winners. For those playing along at home, here’s our notes on how we see the games unfolding:
Round I
Indiana vs. Arkansas:
Indiana should be able to beat Arkansas, during the normal season; the coaching question is hard to call; if Indiana gets to the line (which Arkansas has a tendency to give to opponents) they will make free throws. Almost too close to call. Given the latest history (IU 3-3 under new coach; Arkansas has decent recent wins). Final nod to Arkansas.
UNLV vs. Kent State:
UNLV will not turn over the ball, and you can’t steal from them. Both teams are strongly defensive. Kent State is a better shooting team and will get to the free throw line more often. Based on this, Kent State.
Mississippi State vs. Oregon:
Mississippi State is our highest-ranked #8, Oregon our 3rd-ranked #9. The game is played in Little Rock, which slightly favors Mississippi State. Statistically Mississippi State dominates the inside (rebounding and blocking #6, #2 in the country), Oregon is a great shooting team, but plays almost no defense. Oregon can shoot over Mississippi State’s inside game, and Oregon can put up points efficiently. Miss. St. is a horrible free-throw shooting team, though neither team lives at the line; Miss. St. tends not to foul. Quality of schedule gives it to Miss. St.
BYU vs. Texas A&M:
Both games are both great rebounding teams. Texas A&M on the road plays very poorly (vast difference in the ability to put up points). BYU is a much better shooting team and a great passing team. Both are decent % defensive teams, BYU much better @ 3pt% defense. We see BYU outshooting a low-scoring A&M road team.
Butler vs. South Alabama:
Butler will not turn the ball over. Butler shoots and makes lots of 3’s. South Alabama doesn’t appear to be playing teams which shoot the 3. Butler refuses to rebound, while South Alabama will rebound pretty well. Butler plays basically the slowest ball in the country (hence the rebound #s). South Alabama gets to the free throw line. Butler lost to Drake, played noone else in the 64. Butler is senior-loaded and has been to the tournament a lot. Game is being played in Birmingham. Looks like Butler (even given locale, though we might like to see it go the other way, and it’s a hard call).
Gonzaga vs. Davidson:
Game is being played in Raleigh, NC. Davidson #1 10, Gonzaga #4 7. Both teams have some close losses, some strange losses, a number of easy wins, etc. Davidson will not go to the free-throw line and will not turn over the line. Many of the team stats are similar. Both teams have been to the tournament a number of times. Based upon past Gonzaga history (other than the Munson coached year), Davidson looks marginally better.
Miami vs. St. Mary’s:
St. Mary’s has the best assist defense in the country :-) St. Mary’s defends the 3 very well, and has better points-per-posession and ppp defense. Miami plays a better schedule. Miami shoots great free throws, much better than St. Mary’s. Miami has better (Pomeroy) adjusted offense, St. Mary’s has better defense. Miami can’t seem to win a road game. This is a close call, but the road record is the deciding factor.
West Virginia vs. Arizona:
Arizona shoots free throws well, and Thuggins will put Arizona on the line. Both teams are fairly low-possessions, so a low-possession game. WV blocks a lot, but shoots poor free throws. WV plays an inside game. AZ will shoot the three and get fouled. WV will outrebound AZ. AZ’s defense is horrible. Arizona’s Pomeroy SoS is unbeatable, and they came out of a tough non-conference with only 2 losses (Memphis & Kansas). WV has performed better recently and in their conference. Slight advantage to WV due to locale. Push to WV.
St. Joseph’s vs. Oklahoma:
St. Joe’s is #2 11, Oklahoma #4 6. They play essentially an identical pace, a slow one. Oklahoma defends, St. Joe’s offends. Pomeroy gives Oklahoma a tougher schedule than St. Joe. Game is at a neutral location. Both teams played Gonzaga (St. Joe’s lost, Oklahoma won)—both early. St. Joe’s gets to the foul line and tends to make them. Oklahoma played a tougher schedule. Slight edge to Oklahoma.
USC vs. Kansas State:
Kansas St. has devastating rebound stats. Same points-per-possession stats. Kansas State plays a fast game, USC more down-tempo. USC has a stronger Pomeroy schedule (see also, PAC-10 inflation). Most stats, other than seed, favor Kansas State. Game is being played in Omaha, NE. USC will hit the 3 and Kansas State doesn’t defend that. Kansas State will take it inside. This looks more like and 8-9 instead of a 6-11. Kansas State.
Marquette vs. Kentucky:
Kentucky is playing without Patrick Patterson. Kentucky is prone to turn the ball over, and Marquette is prone to steal the ball. Kentucky has serious problems with point production. No real reason to pick UK.
Baylor vs. Purdue:
Purdue defends, plays slow; Baylor offensive, plays fast. Baylor wins on points-per-possession. Purdue causes lots of turnovers. Baylor gets to the line and shoots better. Purdue is very pesky. Baylor appears to have trouble with slower inside-bound teams (aka Purdue), and Baylor seems to struggle away from home.
Notre Dame vs. George Mason:
Notre Dame will get every rebound. ND our 2nd #5, GM our worst 12. GM played very few notable teams, won their tournament. ND wins on Pomeroy numbers, SoS, and most stats. ND.
Clemson vs. Villanova:
Clemson cannot shoot free throws wroth a damn. Clemson plays a fast ballgame. Clemson’s stats (other than free throws) dominate Villanova’s.
Michigan St. vs. Temple:
Michigan State will outrebound, has comparable offensive stats, and defends better than Temple. Mich. St.
Drake vs. Western Kentucky:
Western shoots well and defends well, playing a pretty fast game. Drake slows the hell out of the game, won’t turn it over. Western commits 20+ fouls a game and Drake is the #8 FT% team in the country. Neither team is playing a strong schedule. Definitely the closest of the 5-12 matchups. Drake’s FT w/ WKU’s fouling gives Drake the win.
Washington State vs. Winthrop:
Winthrop will not hit a free throw, Wash. St. does OK. Both shoot the 3 fairly well, Winthrop defends it well. Wash. St. plays incredibly slow ball. Wash. St. doesn’t rebound; Winthrop does ok on rebounding. Washington State will not turn the ball over. Winthrop has low adjusted Pomeroy offensive efficiencly, won’t play a fast game. Washington State has good off/def Pomeroy numbers, but is in the PAC-10. This will be a slow-ass ballgame. Winthrop’s offense seems anemic, and they rely on a streaky shooter. Washington State’s offense seems limited as well. Game will be close; unlikely to beat Notre Dame. Winthrop’s defense could slump Washington State, so push for Winthrop win.
Vanderbilt vs. Siena:
Siena wants to steal the ball, and refuses to turn it over. Points per possession is similar. Vanderbilt’s defensive PPP is worse than Siena’s. Siena doesn’t foul (question about strength of schedule). Siena doesn’t defend the 3 well, while Vanderbilt is a great 3-point team. This will be an up-tempo game. Both teams give up a lot of offensive rebounds. Siena will steal the ball. Vanderbilt’s adjusted Pomeroy stats are better than Siena’s. Vanderbilt’s SoS numbers look significantly better. Vanderbilt has trouble on the road. Could be a close game. Siena’s center doesn’t score much and they look to be smaller inside (Pomeroy height). Looks like Vanderbilt will take it inside if they have trouble from the permiter. Vanderbilt for the win.
Pitt vs. Oral Roberts:
Pitt is offensively stronger, Oral Roberts is comparably defensively strong. Both teams are comparable in a lot of statistical areas, playing a similar pace of game. Pitt has better SoS. Pitt is on a recent good run and seems to scrap it out in the tournament. Oral Roberts hasn’t got anything compelling to overcome Pitt’s rebounding skill, scrapping, etc.
Connecticutt vs. San Diego:
Statistically there’s really no contest here. UConn. :-(
Louisville vs. Boise State:
Location slightly favors Louisville (Birmingham). Boise St. plays an uptempo game with strong shooting. Louisville defends the shot well. Boise State passes well, though so does Louisville. Adjusting for opponents Louisville’s O/D stats look much better than Boise State’s. Louisville has more tournament experience. I think Pitino will bring Louisville through over a team in a down conference year.
Wisconsin vs. Cal. State Fullerton:
Wisconsin slows it down, plays strong defense, Fullerton plays more offensively. Only Duke seems to have gotten Wisconsin out of their game. Wisconsin gets opponents to foul them and then lives at the line. Fullerton will foul. Wisconsin’s adjusted stats strongly favor Wisconsin (including #1 in defense in the country). Wisconsin’s schedule is vastly stronger than Fullerton’s. It’ll still be a close-scoring game due to the pace, but Wisconsin should prevail.
Stanford vs. Cornell:
Stanford rebounds well, Cornell doesn’t rebound at all. Cornell shoots very very well (5, 6, 11 in country wise) .. 76.27 from the line, though they don’t tend to get to the line (presumably due to the Ivy League competition). Stanford play a bit better offense than Cornell does defense. Game is being played in Anaheim. :/ Cornell’s opposing offense strength sucks. Stanfords adjusted #s look vastly better (even given PAC-10 inflation). Cornell does have an inside presence (7-footer) and strong 3-point shooting, played strong against Duke and beat Siena. It will be a closer game than people probably expect. Cornell is going to play a faster pace than Stanford. Don’t see Cornell winning in Anaheim though.
Georgia vs. Xavier:
Georgia is on a run. :-) hahahah. Georgia’s Gaines and recent home wins shouldn’t be enough to overcome Xavier’s statistical dominance.
Tennessee vs. American:
American turns the ball over a lot esp. given their slow pace. UT will get you to turn the ball over. American shoots 4th 3pt % in the country, but UT defends @ 20th against the 3. UT will outrebound American. Birmingham location favors UT. UT.
Georgetown vs. UMBC:
UMBC is very efficient at scoring, but plays little defense. UMBC never turns over the ball. UMBC is in a bad conference. Georgetown plays good defense. Another slow-ass game. UMBC never turns over the ball, though Georgetown does. Don’t really see how UMBC can be bad on defense in a bad conference and defeat Georgetown.
Texas vs. Austin Peay:
Texas has the #1 TO and TO rate stats in the country. Austin Peay steals a lot but Texas never lets that happen. Austin Peay doesn’t rebound. Texas doesn’t pass the ball. Texas is strong offensively against strong defenses, Austin Peay has horrible SoS numbers. Don’t see them stopping Texas.
Duke vs. Belmont:
Both teams run up and down the floor. Belmont’s defensive stats are too weak to keep up with Duke.
Round II
Notre Dame vs. Winthrop:
Notre Dame is better offensively, while Winthrop is stronger defensively. Notre Dame is a great 3pt% team (#3 in the country) and passes great. Winthrop’s defense is possibly strong enough to pose a challenge to Notre Dame’s offense. Notre Dame is a great rebounding team, Winthrop is decent, especially considering how slow of a game they place. The game will probably be a good one. Doesn’t appear as if Winthrop has the offensive guns to make it past ND.
Clemson vs. Vanderbilt:
A lot of stats are very similar. Clemson will clean up on the boards, but Vanderbilt may kill them on the free-throw line. Clemson defends the three very well, while Vanderbilt relies a lot on the three. Could be matched up pretty well, guards vs. inside game. Clemson will steal the ball. Vanderbilt has trouble on the road. It’s a close close call, but Vanderbilt probably loses on the road.
Pitt vs. Michigan State:
Tiny mile-high edge to Pitt playing in Denver. Mich. St. shoots better and defends shots better than Pitt. Both have great Orp stats. The game will be on the slower side. Nietzel is an unknown quantity, though usually shows up in the tourney. Mich. St. shoots much better free throws. Mich St.’s Pomerowy adjusted numbers are better than Pitt’s. Pitt will probably outrebound Mich. St. Mich. St. seems to be more likely to prevail.
Drake vs. UConn:
Drake beats UConn in both points-per-position (offense/defense) categories. Drake plays slow, doesn’t turn it over. Drake has good Pomeroy adjusted numbers, wrapping around UConn’s. Drake shoots great free throws but doesn’t necessarily get to the line, and UConn isn’t inclined to send anyone to the FT line. UConn gets lots of fouls, but Drake doesn’t tend to commit fouls. Drake is playing outside ball, UConn playing inside ball, blocking every thing that comes into the paint. We see Drake winning on the outside.
Oklahoma vs. Louisville:
Both teams are bad at the free throw line; UL puts other teams there, but it might not make much difference in this game. UL is slightly better defensively. Louisville shoots better, slightly. UL’s Pomeroy adjusted numbers are a little better, while Oklahoma’s SoS is a little better. OK has Griffin and Longar Longar in the middle. UL has Padgett distributing the ball. UL has been pressing lately. It may well be a close game, but we give Louisville the edge.
Kansas St. vs Wisconsin:
This will be Wisconsin’s slow ball against KS’s fast ball. Can Kansas State get to the inside against Wisconsin. Points-per-possession are dead equal, but Wisconsin’s Ppp defense is spectacular. KS rebounds incredibly well, Wisconsin well. Omaha slightly favors Kansas State. Again a question of whether Bo Ryan ball can overcome a skilled fast-paced opponent. No matter how Allen picks this it will be wrong, because Wisconsin is involved. Wisc. hasn’t played a fast-paced game since January. We give the edge to Kansas State.
Marquette vs. Stanford:
Both teams get offensive rebounds, but Marquette allows the other team to get them, significantly. Marquette shuts down the 3, but Stanford doesn’t really shoot it. Marquette will steal the ball, but Stanford doesn’t allow too many steals. Ppp (both offense and defense) are pretty much identical. Pomeroy adjusted numbers are virtually identical. SoS is pretty much the same too. Only one common foe (Sacramento State) that they both beat about the same. Offensive stats are pretty identical. Steals vs. blocks, w/ t-o’s end up averaging out to be about the same. This is a very close statistical matchup. Stanford plays slower, Marquette faster. Marquette beat Wisconsin (@ Wisconsin), which is stylistically similar to Wisconsin (close game, made a few more shots, a couple more free throws). The game is being played in Anaheim, which favors Stanford. Marquette is 7-3 in last 10, Stanford is 6-4. Marquette’s wins are maybe slightly better more recently. This game is pretty much a dead heat. Given that, we pick Stanford for local court advantage.
Purdue vs. Xavier:
Pomeroy adjusted stats favor Xavier offensively, fairly close defensively. Purdue had a rough pre-season. Xavier will outrebound. Purdue is forcing lots of turnovers, and Xavier will turn the ball over. Purdue is going to send Xavier to the line where they are very good. Xavier has good shooting %s. Will Purdue’s forcing turnovers, stealing and blocking overcome their tendency to foul and put Xavier on the line (+ Xavier’s good general shooting)? This is a hard-ass game to pick. The consideration of fouls called is reduced, generally, in the tournament, by fewer calls. We call this an OT game. Seth Davis picks Xavier to go far. We choose Purdue.
Butler vs. Tennessee:
Butler never turns over the ball, plays a slow pace, doesn’t rebound well, defends the 3 well. Butler shoots the 3 better, gets to the free-throw line more. UT relies on turning over the other team, running the ball and hitting the 3, as well as bringing some inside (if Chism, etc., aren’t in foul trouble). Pomeroy numbers for TN are somewhat better, and TN played a hard schedule. Butler is a vastly better free-throw shooting team. TN commits a lot of fouls, though fewer are probably called in the tourney. TN passes the ball better than Butler, somewhat. Not clear that Butler has played anyone who wants to score a lot of points. Tennessee seems to sometimes be able to win against a slower opponent, but not clear they’ve played a team like Butler. Pick Butler.
Davidson vs. Georgetown:
Georgetown passes very well (esp. for a slow possession team), Davidson also passes pretty well, but not as well. Georgetown scores in the paint very well. Hibbert is overrated. Ppp Davidson is right with Georgetown. The Pomeroy adjusted efficiencies favor Georgetown somewhat. Davidson played Duke & UNC tough @ neutral sites, played a tough schedule but didn’t put in a lot of wins; beat Winthrop decisively late in the season. Georgetown plays a tougher schedule, seems to occasionally get a ref on their side ;-) Georgetown shoots poorly from free throw, Davidson better; but Davidson doesn’t send people too often, and Georgetown even less. Raleigh location somewhat favors Davidson. Davidson could do it… it’s a somewhat bold pick.
Saint Mary’s vs. Texas:
Texas beat them soundly @ home earlier in the year. In that game apparently St. Mary’s tried to take it inside and got stomped and were forced to go outside where they didn’t convert. Rick Barnes is a shithead coach, but, still, is he going to lose this one? Texas.
Duke vs. West Virginia:
Duke wants steals & 3’s. WV won’t turn it over but doesn’t defend the 3 well. Duke is very fast-paced, while WV is significantly slower. Duke gets a lot of rebounds (they shoot well, but play a fast tempo). WV doesn’t shoot well. Duke probably cannot put Demarcus Nelson (6’4”) on Joe Alexander (6’8”). Neither team is shooting great free throws. Duke has better Ppp numbers (including adjusted Pomery numbers). Not clear what WV can do to overcome Duke here.
UNC vs. Arkansas:
Arkansas defends a bit better than UNC, but: UNC has Orp rank #1, offensively great stats. Hill & Townes aren’t capable of stopping Hansbrough inside. UNC.
Kansas vs. Kent State:
Kansas is the #1 Ppp offense, adjusted Pomeroy offense, #2 national assists, #21 Orp @ a #119 rank possession pace. Neither team is a stellar free throw % team. Kent plays very slow ball. Kansas puts up a lot of points. Kent’s strategy should be: foul early, foul often. Playing in Omaha, an adjusted 30 minute drive from Lawrence. Kansas.
Memphis vs. Mississippi State:
Rick Stansbury—moron; Dorsey, head case. Miss. St. will turn the ball over, while Memphis will not. Some major shot blocking (a “block party”, in fact). If Dorsey gets in trouble, Memphis is in trouble; and Dorsey is often in foul trouble. Memphis didn’t play much lately (C-USA), other than UT, which was a complete collapse of discipline, and they lost @ home. Memphis has only had one loss; only played UConn, OK, Gtown, w/ big men. Big men vs. Big men. Both teams shoot poorly from the line, but neither really fouls a lot. Miss. St. turns the ball over a lot, while Memphis looks to steal it. Question: if Memphis gets challenged for the first time in a long while, how do they respond to it? Based on the turnovers, probably see Memphis coming out of this.
UCLA vs. BYU:
Have identical points rankings, though different tempos (BYU much faster). UCLA doesn’t shoot the 3, while BYU will do inside or outside. UCLA’s Mbah Moute is maybe injured (maybe just nonsense). BYU rebounds defensively pretty well, but doesn’t do much offensive rebounding at all. They’re playing in Anaheim. UCLA is vastly better at the line than BYU. UCLA dominates the adjusted Pomeroy stats (including PAC-10 inflation). Can’t see BYU making this happen.
Round III
Louisville vs. Butler:
Butler plays slow ball, Louisville significantly faster. Butler will not going to turn it over, nor rebound the ball. Louisville shoots 65.5% free throws, Butler 73%. Louisville defends the three very well, while Butler takes a shit-ton of threes. The question seems to be can Louisville defend the 3 well enough while not getting stuck on the line bricking free throws. We don’t see Butler pulling it off, as we think Louisville will shut down the 3.
Davidson vs. Kansas State:
Kansas State outrebounds, but will turn over the ball a lot more often. Davidson never goes to the free throw line, though they shoot there decently. Davidson shoots better, and Kansas State doesn’t seem to be defending all that well. Kansas State fouls a lot. Questions about Beazley’s health. Picked Davidson.
Stanford vs. Texas:
Playing in Houston. Texas never turns the ball over. TX plays poorly against the Big-10 (Rick Barnes in effect). Common foes—TX beat UCLA @ UCLA (Stanford lost to them 3 times). By transitivity, Big-10 > PAC-10 (see Ballman for a proof that exceeds the margin space). Stanford outrebounds Texas, gets to the line a lot better, both shoot about 69% from the line. TX shoots the 3 better, though Stanford doesn’t really shoot the 3. Can Stanford stop Augustin/Abram? Q: Does Rick Barnes foot-shooting outweigh playing in Houston? Can’t see TX doing this, if they couldn’t do it last year with Durant. Stanford.
Purdue vs. Duke:
Duke is fast-tempo; Purdue down-tempo. Duke shoots 3’s well, Purdue doesn’t really defend it well. Purdue shoots slightly better free throws, defends slightly better. Purdue is slightly better defensive Ppp, but much worse offensively. Otherwise, Duke beats them in pretty much every statistical category. Duke doesn’t have a big guy, but neither does Purdue.
UNC vs. Notre Dame:
Once again, UNC doesn’t leave the greater Tarheel Metro Area (Charlotte). Harangody vs. Hansbrough. UNC plays a fast pace, somewhat faster than ND. They both have great offense #s. UNC shoots inside better, ND shoots the 3 better. Both shoot free throws well, rebound well. TO’s are a push, but UNC gets more steals. UNC plays against better defenses than ND, opposing offenses are basically identical. If any team in this quadrant is going to beat UNC, it’s ND. Probably one hell of a ballgame, but UNC probably wins it.
Kansas vs. Clemson:
Clemson bricks free throws. Kansas rebounds great and has an incredible offense. The few games KU lost one was a rivalry, one was OK St. slowing the game down, and the other was really won at the foul line. Don’t see Clemson doing it.
Memphis vs. Michigan State:
Michigan State passes the ball very well. Izz in the houzze. According to Ballman, Izzo hasn’t had a recruiting class that hasn’t been to the Final Four… this would be the first (update: this stat is a year off, they have one more year). Michigan State is rebounding much better than Memphis. Memphis’ Ppp’s are better. Memphis is almost the worst free throw shooting team in the country, Michigan State is much better. If Memphis’s Dorsey is committing fouls, Memphis will suffer for it. Memphis is defensively stronger. RIMBoy has been feeling the Memphis. Dead heat. We call it for Memphis still.
Drake vs. UCLA:
Phoenix anti-UCLA sentiment in effect. Both shoot free throws well. Drake doesn’t offensively rebound as well. UCLA & Drake are both playing pretty slow pace. UCLA is much more balanced than the UConn team we picked Drake beating. UCLA.
Round IV
Memphis vs. Stanford:
Questions as to the tree’s probation status and sobriety. The Lopezes vs. the Dorsey. Q: does the free throw shooting finally catch up with Memphis? Memphis defends the three very well. See Lopezes getting over on Dorsey, making it up on the line and winning.
Davidson vs. Kansas:
Can’t see Davidson going any further.
Duke vs. UCLA:
Playing in Phoenix. Duke’s tempo is a lot faster. Duke will shoot the three, and UCLA probably won’t defend it. Neither team will turn over much. Ppp numbers (Pomeroy adjusted) are both in the upper echelon; SoS comparable; so dead heat on Pomeroy once PAC-10 inflation taken into account. See Duke coming out of there.
UNC vs. Louisville:
Can Padgett + Caracter take out Lawson & Hansborough in Charlotte? What would UL have to do? UL can’t shoot free throws either. UNC comes out of this one.
Round V
UNC vs. Kansas:
Roy Williams vs. the ghost of Roy Williams, in San Antonio… This will be an awesome ballgame. Kansas has better stats than UNC, generally, though they are both dominant teams. Pomeroy generally favors Kansas. Both teams shoot > 70% from the line (UNC has the advantage there). UNC’s first away game since, what, February. Kansas plays defense, how novel. Kansas.
Duke vs. Stanford:
Both play reasonable defense, Duke has slightly better offense. Duke has no inside game, against Stanford’s twins. Stanford owns offensive rebounding. Turnover rate is comparable. Both are kind of crappy FT shooters. Coach K is too good of a coach. Duke shoots the 3 and steals the ball.
Championship
Kansas vs. Duke:
Duke fouls more; they both shoot about 70% free throws. Kansas rebounds better; they shoot the 3 about the same, Duke defends the 3 a bit better. Bill Self vs. Roy Williams. There’s a first time for everything.
